A question on Project Management

Given below is a WBS of a project.

 

              

Activity	Activity time in days	Immediate Predecessors
a	30	--
b	20	--
c	15	a
d	18	b
e	32	b
f	25	c, d
g	22	c, d
h	17	e, g
i	8	e
j	15	i

 

 Draw an activity network diagram for this project and find the critical path by finding earliest time and latest time of various events. What is the project completion time?

A question on forecasting (time series)

The recorded number of claims in motor insurance in last 7 months are as follows:

 

35, 70, 45, 20, 50, 80 and 60.

 

Use moving average method to forecast the number of claims for next 3 months based on past 4 months data. The actual numbers of claims in 8^th and 9^th months are 100 and 30 respectively. 

 

Take a smoothing factor of 0.3 to forecast the 10^th month data using exponential smoothing forecasting technique. Don’t change the forecast of previous months.

Simulation Problem

A health insurance product is designed targeting persons working in Education sector. The age profile of people who has taken this policy is as follows:

 

21- 35 years     25%

35+ - 45 years 30%

45+ - 55 years 25%

55+  years       20%

 

Probability of claim is 0.2 in all the age groups however the claim amount varies linearly between Rs. 15000 to Rs. 80000 for age up to 45 years and between Rs. 30000 to Rs. 200000 for age above 45 years. Do a simulation run of length 10 to understand the claim pattern.

 

Use following random numbers 5971, 9987, 1741, 7431, 188, 5333, 3680, 4883, 5036, 5407, 2763, 7194, 3395, 3632, 1109, 9943, 6690, 6408