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Monday, December 26, 2011

A question on forecasting (time series)

The recorded number of claims in motor insurance in last 7 months are as follows:
 
35, 70, 45, 20, 50, 80 and 60.
 
Use moving average method to forecast the number of claims for next 3 months based on past 4 months data. The actual numbers of claims in 8th and 9th months are 100 and 30 respectively. 
 
Take a smoothing factor of 0.3 to forecast the 10th month data using exponential smoothing forecasting technique. Don’t change the forecast of previous months.

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